Macro Strategist Report — Indian Equities (Nifty50)

Date: August 02, 2026

2. Executive Summary

• Regime: STABLE. Nifty50 has reclaimed its 50-day (24,384 vs 23,904) but remains 1.6% below its 200-day (24,779), and the 50-day is still under the 200-day. Mixed signals — not a bull market, not a bear one.
• Dominant driver: a softening dollar against a rising US 10-year. DXY -1.7% over 7 days gives the rupee room; the 10-year at 4.74% and still rising takes it straight back. Brent at $90.12 sits on the CAD-stress line, but is falling hard (-6.9% in 7 days) — the one clean tailwind.
• Money Maker scan ran (STABLE regime) and returned zero signals. This is not an absence of setups: 15 Nifty500 names fired a clean V3 shaved-bottom candle in the last 10 sessions. Every one was blocked by the index SMA200 gate. The strategy is working exactly as designed.
• Actionable now: nothing in India, and that is the call. The gate is 1.6% away. The three names worth staging are BHARTIHEXA, CDSL and JKCEMENT — all within 2% of their own SMA200 reclaim, all inside the 10% risk cap.
• IT is the standout sector (+6.75% in 5 days, +7.6% over its 50-day) but is still 6.3% below its 200-day — a bounce inside a downtrend, not a reversal. Pharma is the only major sector above both MAs.

2b. 7-Day Continuity Tracker

What changed: No prior report exists inside the 7-day lookback window — the most recent archived report is dated 21-05-2026, ten weeks ago. There is therefore no yesterday-ALERT to confirm or contradict, and no conviction list to diff against. This report re-establishes the baseline: regime STABLE, zero live signals, index gate 1.6% below activation. Treat the ALERT at the foot of this report as the new reference point for the next run.

3. Market Regime & Scan Decision Rationale

Nifty50 closed at 24,383.60 on 31 July 2026. The 50-day sits at 23,903.88 and the 200-day at 24,779.46. Applying the A2 rule without override: Close > SMA50 is TRUE, Close > SMA200 is FALSE, and SMA50 > SMA200 is FALSE. That is neither the full BULL set nor the full BEAR set, so the regime is STABLE — mixed signals, with the index having recovered its short-term trend but not its long-term one, and the golden-cross structure still inverted. Per the gating rule, STABLE routes to the Money Maker scan (scan/india.py), which is the scan that ran. The bear-market screener was not run.

4. Macro Headlines

Key Macro Takeaway: The India tape is preoccupied with recovery mechanics and a heavy IPO calendar, while the global tape is carrying an OPEC quota decision — which is the item that matters most for India. A small quota hike into an already-falling Brent print is the difference between $90 crude being a passing scare and a sustained current-account problem. Note the US feed (WSJ) returned items from January 2025 and was discarded under the 48-hour rule rather than used to pad this table.

Discarded as older than 48h: India 0, Global 0, US 10 (entire WSJ feed).

5. Indian Market Charts — Last 7 Calendar Days

Nifty 50 · 24,384 · +2.59%

USD/INR · 95.39 · -1.22%

Gold USD · 4,107 · +0.97%

Nifty Bank · 57,265 · +1.01%

Nifty IT · 30,709 · +6.75%

Nifty FMCG · 48,749 · -1.14%

stale — last print 17 Jul

Nifty Pharma · 26,535 · +3.86%

Nifty Metal · 12,437 · -1.99%

stale — last print 17 Jul

Nifty Energy · 39,277 · +0.09%

stale — last print 17 Jul

Nifty PSU Bank · 8,382 · -0.83%

stale — last print 17 Jul

Nifty Realty · 919 · -2.12%

stale — last print 17 Jul

Nifty Media · 1,521 · +2.50%

stale — last print 17 Jul

Missing / stale data — read the sector table with care. yfinance has returned no usable close for these sector indices since mid-July: Nifty Media (last print 17 Jul 2026), Nifty Energy (last print 17 Jul 2026), Nifty PSU Bank (last print 17 Jul 2026), Nifty FMCG (last print 17 Jul 2026), Nifty Metal (last print 17 Jul 2026), Nifty Realty (last print 17 Jul 2026). Their 31-Jul rows carry high/low but a null close. This is an upstream outage, not a local fault — verified by re-querying the source directly. Their charts and rows therefore show mid-July levels, and any sector call resting on them is provisional. Nifty Auto, Infra, Finance and Consumer have no CSV at all.

6. Global Macro Dashboard — Last 7 Calendar Days

S&P 500 · 7,490 · +1.05%

NASDAQ · 25,374 · +1.59%

VIX · 15.99 · -13.94%

US 10Y Yield · 4.74% · +1.41%

Dollar Index · 99.80 · -1.65%

Brent Crude · 90.12 · -6.88%

Nikkei 225 · 64,362 · -0.39%

Hang Seng · 25,884 · +3.69%

Shanghai · 3,832 · +0.47%

KOSPI · 6,595 · -1.42%

DAX · 25,629 · +2.11%

FTSE 100 · 10,868 · +1.23%

Global Macro Pulse

7. Sector Performance Snapshot

8. Key Fundamentals — Nifty50 Leaders & Laggards

Fundamentals cache was last written 22-03-2026, so the newest available quarter is Dec 2025 — two quarters behind. Growth rates are real but not current; refresh screener_cache/ before acting on any of these.

9. Scan Results — Money Maker (STABLE regime)

Why zero: this is a gate rejection, not an absence of setups. Fifteen Nifty500 names produced a valid V3 shaved-bottom candle in the last ten sessions — ASHOKLEY, HYUNDAI, HEROMOTOCO and CONCOR among them. Every one was rejected by the V4/V5 market filter, which requires the Nifty to close above its 200-day. The index is 1.6% below that line and has been under it for 103 of the last 120 sessions. Nifty50 (V5 filters) produced no raw candles at all.

10. Sector Recommendation

11. Long-Term Watchlist

Grade-A rocket profiles inside the 10% risk cap, from watchlist.csv. All meet every Money Maker precondition except the trigger candle.

12. What to Avoid — High Conviction

1. NIFTY IT — Up 6.75% in five days but still 6.33% below its 200-day — a bounce inside a downtrend, which is the classic STABLE-regime trap.
2. ENERGY / OMCs — Brent at $90.12 is on the CAD-stress threshold; margin compression risk is live until crude sustains below $90.
3. Any blocked Money Maker signal — 15 Nifty500 names fired valid V3 candles and were rejected by the index gate — taking them manually discards the single filter that drives the strategy's edge.
4. WDAY (US) — Indicative risk 25.5% of entry — two and a half times the 10% cap; position size collapses to noise.
5. ECLERX / SAGILITY / KFINTECH — Textbook dip profiles (0.4-3.7% depth) but risk of 15.8-16.8% at current ATR — the setup is right and the volatility makes it untradeable.
6. SUNDARMFIN — 18 days below its 200-day with 7.4% depth — the loser profile (avg 50 days, 7.9% depth) rather than the rocket profile (19.5 days, 4.1%).

13. Strategist's Commentary

14. Data Availability Notes